Legislature(2023 - 2024)ADAMS 519

05/08/2023 10:00 AM House FINANCE

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10:03:58 AM Start
10:07:20 AM HJR2 || HB38
10:54:24 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
-- Please Note Time Change --
+= HJR 2 CONST. AM: APPROP LIMIT TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+= HB 38 APPROPRIATION LIMIT; GOV BUDGET TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 2                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     Proposing amendments to the Constitution of the State                                                                      
     of Alaska relating to an appropriation limit.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
HOUSE BILL NO. 38                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     "An Act relating to an appropriation limit; relating                                                                       
     to the budget responsibilities of the governor; and                                                                        
     providing for an effective date."                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:07:20 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative Hannan  asked Co-Chair Foster to  restate the                                                                    
amendment deadline for the bills.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Foster relayed the information.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
ALEXEI  PAINTER,  DIRECTOR,  LEGISLATIVE  FINANCE  DIVISION,                                                                    
provided a PowerPoint  presentation titled "HB 38  and HJR 2                                                                    
Appropriation Limits," dated May 8,  2023 (copy on file). He                                                                    
began  on   slide  2  showing  the   current  constitutional                                                                    
appropriation limit. He explained  that there were two parts                                                                    
to  an appropriation  limit: appropriations  subject to  the                                                                    
limit and the limit itself.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  moved to slide  3 and  addressed appropriations                                                                    
subject to  the current constitutional limit.  He noted that                                                                    
exceptions to  the limit included  certain fund  sources and                                                                    
purposes.   He  explained   that   not   all  general   fund                                                                    
appropriations   were   subject   to  the   current   limit.                                                                    
Exclusions included Alaska  Permanent Fund Dividends (PFDs),                                                                    
appropriations  of  revenue  bond  proceeds,  appropriations                                                                    
required  to  pay  the principal  and  interest  on  general                                                                    
obligation  bonds   (i.e.,  any  bond  debt   repayment  was                                                                    
excluded  from  the  limit),  and  appropriations  of  money                                                                    
received from  a non-state  source in  trust for  a specific                                                                    
purpose,  including  revenues  of  a  public  enterprise  or                                                                    
public corporation of the state that issues revenue bonds.                                                                      
Mr. Painter  detailed that  the limitation  included federal                                                                    
funds  held  in trusts  for  a  specific purpose,  statutory                                                                    
designated   program  receipts   where   an  outside   group                                                                    
initiated a  contract with the  state, revenues of  a public                                                                    
enterprise  or  public  corporations (e.g.,  Alaska  Housing                                                                    
Finance Corporation), and no appropriation  in excess of the                                                                    
limit  could be  made except  to  meet a  state of  disaster                                                                    
declared  by  the  governor. Additionally,  the  legislature                                                                    
could exceed  the limit for appropriations  to the Permanent                                                                    
Fund  (special appropriations  to  the  Permanent Fund  fell                                                                    
outside  the  limit).  He   relayed  an  attorney  general's                                                                    
opinion   [from    1983]   indicated   that    school   debt                                                                    
reimbursement was excluded  from the limit. He  noted it was                                                                    
municipal debt,  not state  debt, but  the opinion  ruled it                                                                    
fell under  the debt  provision; therefore, it  was excluded                                                                    
from  the  limit.  He  explained that  when  the  limit  was                                                                    
calculated  by the  Legislative Finance  Division (LFD)  and                                                                    
officially by  the Division  of Finance  it factored  in the                                                                    
exclusions   of   fund   sources  and   certain   types   of                                                                    
expenditures.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:11:59 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  reviewed  a  pie  chart  on  slide  4  showing                                                                    
appropriations subject  to current constitutional  limit, FY                                                                    
23  management  plan.  The  purple   portion  of  the  chart                                                                    
reflected appropriations subject to  the limit at about $5.8                                                                    
billion.  The yellow  section reflected  PFDs including  the                                                                    
energy relief  payment at about $2.1  billion. Bond proceeds                                                                    
accounted   for   a  small   portion   of   the  chart   [at                                                                    
approximately  $73.6  million.  Appropriations from  a  non-                                                                    
state source  reflected the  majority of  the appropriations                                                                    
[at  $8.9 billion].  He explained  that nearly  half of  the                                                                    
state's  appropriations were  federal and  the segment  also                                                                    
included  public corporations,  international airports,  and                                                                    
so forth.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:12:55 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  turned to  slide 5  and discussed  the starting                                                                    
point and  growth rate of the  current constitutional limit.                                                                    
The current  limit applied  to $2.5  billion as  adjusted by                                                                    
the   cumulative  change   derived  from   federal  indices,                                                                    
population, and inflation since 1981.  He stated there was a                                                                    
little   ambiguity  on   how   to   calculate  the   current                                                                    
constitutional  limit.  He  detailed that  the  Division  of                                                                    
Finance  under the  Department  of  Administration made  the                                                                    
official   calculation   by    multiplying   inflation   and                                                                    
population. For example, if there  was a 2 percent growth in                                                                    
inflation and  population, the limit would  be multiplied by                                                                    
1.02  twice.  He  pointed  out   that  the  Municipality  of                                                                    
Anchorage  had a  tax cap  with identical  wording, but  its                                                                    
calculation was added. For example,  if the two numbers were                                                                    
2  percent  and  3  percent,  the  two  numbers  were  added                                                                    
together to  equal 5 percent  growth. He explained it  was a                                                                    
difference of about $3 billion  compounded over 40 years. He                                                                    
advised making  the calculation very clear  when designing a                                                                    
limit. He noted that the  current calculation was not clear,                                                                    
and  LFD  viewed the  language  as  ambiguous. The  official                                                                    
calculation resulted  in a limit  of about $11.3  billion in                                                                    
FY 23.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Galvin referred  to Mr.  Painter's statement                                                                    
that  the   Municipality  of  Anchorage  used   a  different                                                                    
calculation   resulting   in   a   $3   billion   difference                                                                    
[compounded  over 40  years]. She  asked  whether the  $11.3                                                                    
billion [under  the current  constitutional limit]  would be                                                                    
higher or lower based on the different calculation method.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  responded that the  other calculation  would be                                                                    
about $3 billion lower.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin asked  if the number would  be at $8.3                                                                    
billion.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  replied that  it was  in the  $8 billion  to $9                                                                    
billion range versus the $11 billion to $12 billion range.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter turned  to slide  6  and reviewed  a bar  chart                                                                    
showing  the constitutional  appropriation  limit since  its                                                                    
inception  [in  FY  83].  The   blue  bar  reflected  agency                                                                    
operations,  which  tended to  be  the  steadiest item.  The                                                                    
green  portion of  the bars  reflected statewide  operations                                                                    
and  the  red  portion  reflected  the  capital  budget.  He                                                                    
highlighted  that  current  numbers showed  that  the  state                                                                    
broke the  limit in the  first few years. He  explained that                                                                    
at the  time, many language appropriations  were not counted                                                                    
in the way  they would be counted at  present. He elaborated                                                                    
that under  modern accounting the  limit had been  broken in                                                                    
the  first few  years,  but  under contemporary  accounting,                                                                    
spending  had been  within the  limit.  Following the  first                                                                    
several years there  was a prolonged period  of budgets that                                                                    
did  not  grow quickly  or  keep  up with  inflation,  which                                                                    
caused  a substantial  difference between  the appropriation                                                                    
limit and the budget. When  the state had significantly more                                                                    
revenue, expenditures  spiked and approached the  limit, but                                                                    
did  not  reach  it.  At  present,  under  more  constrained                                                                    
revenue,  appropriations were  a  bit more  than $5  billion                                                                    
beneath the constitutional limit.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Edgmon noted the slide  was not new: there had been                                                                    
many iterations before  and would be more in  the future. He                                                                    
thought population  growth in the  state should  be included                                                                    
on the  slide because much  of the state's  operating budget                                                                    
was population driven.  He cited Medicaid as  an example. He                                                                    
noted that the  current proposal did not have  a direct link                                                                    
to  population, but  he believed  it  should. He  elaborated                                                                    
that  the state's  population was  getting  older. He  asked                                                                    
about the impact of population on overall state spending.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter answered that the  slide adjusted for population                                                                    
and  inflation. He  stated that  population would  influence                                                                    
the  number  of  students  in  schools  and  the  number  of                                                                    
Medicaid  recipients. He  expounded that  many of  the large                                                                    
budget drivers  were driven by  the size and  composition of                                                                    
the  state's   population.  He   explained  that   an  aging                                                                    
population meant  fewer students in schools.  He relayed the                                                                    
state had  seen roughly the  same number of students  in its                                                                    
schools  for   about  25  years   despite  an   increase  in                                                                    
population during  the same period. He  elaborated that more                                                                    
people utilized social services  as the population aged. The                                                                    
population   had  grown   and  shifted   where  expenditures                                                                    
occurred in  the budget. He  added that an  aging population                                                                    
did not  necessarily mean there were  lower expenditures, in                                                                    
some cases, some departments were  much higher. He suggested                                                                    
that one  interesting way  to view the  graph was  to adjust                                                                    
for  inflation  and  population  and  show  the  black  line                                                                    
[reflecting  the  constitutional   appropriation  limit]  as                                                                    
flat, while showing how expenditures  had fluctuated in real                                                                    
terms rather  than showing how  the line had  fluctuated. He                                                                    
explained it may  appear the state had  increased the budget                                                                    
substantially,  but inflation  and population  had increased                                                                    
far more than the budget.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Edgmon remarked  that Alaska  paid for  more state                                                                    
services than  any other state  in the country based  on the                                                                    
state's constitution. He remarked  there was not a cascading                                                                    
layer of taxes at the county  level. He noted Alaska did not                                                                    
have counties. He believed population  had to be a driver in                                                                    
any spending cap going forward.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:19:25 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative Hannan  asked if the definition  of statewide                                                                    
operations had  been changed in  the FY 07/FY  08 timeframe.                                                                    
She  asked why  there had  been a  large jump  at the  time,                                                                    
which seemed to be fairly steady proportionally.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter answered  it had been driven by  two things. The                                                                    
first was  statewide assist  retirement. He  elaborated that                                                                    
there had not  been a known unfunded liability  until FY 03.                                                                    
The  liability was  $700  million  per year  by  FY 13.  The                                                                    
second  [reason for  the increase  in statewide  operations]                                                                    
was oil and gas tax credits.  He explained that there were a                                                                    
couple of bills  in the 2000s that created  tax credits that                                                                    
were no longer on the books  that the state was still paying                                                                    
off. He  noted the  expenditure was several  hundred million                                                                    
dollars per  year. The two  items accounted for most  of the                                                                    
increase in statewide items.  Additionally, during that time                                                                    
there had  been the  creation of  new state  funds including                                                                    
the  Higher Education  Fund and  increasing  the Power  Cost                                                                    
Equalization (PCE)  Fund. He explained that  new funds often                                                                    
showed  up  as  a   statewide  item,  although  any  further                                                                    
appropriations  would be  outside  the limit  and would  not                                                                    
necessarily show up on the chart [on slide 6].                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:21:02 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative Stapp  could not  think of any  example where                                                                    
population growth  did not positively impact  gross domestic                                                                    
product (GDP)  output. He noted  that the same was  true for                                                                    
population decline. He asked if the assessment was fair.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  answered that  it  was  true to  some  extent;                                                                    
however, because the state's economy  was driven by resource                                                                    
extraction, its GDP fluctuations were  due to the prices and                                                                    
quantity  of resources  being extracted.  He  stated it  was                                                                    
possible  to  look  at  statistics  for  the  oil  industry,                                                                    
timber, fisheries, and mining.  He explained that taking out                                                                    
minerals including oil  and gas, the numbers  were much more                                                                    
stable  and  reflective  of  overall  economic  growth.  The                                                                    
fluctuations in value  of the state's exports  drove much of                                                                    
the  year-to-year fluctuations.  The  fluctuations were  not                                                                    
directly  tied  to  population,  although  when  oil  prices                                                                    
crashed, there was less activity  on the North Slope and the                                                                    
state's  population  decreased.  There  was  a  relationship                                                                    
[between  population growth  and  GDP], but  it  was not  as                                                                    
direct as  in many other  states because of the  large value                                                                    
of Alaska's natural resources.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Edgmon relayed  that  he viewed  the  topic a  bit                                                                    
differently  because 70  percent of  the state's  population                                                                    
resided within  the Railbelt. He  remarked that the  GDP was                                                                    
an academic term that fluctuated  given one-time events that                                                                    
may have  no impact on the  cost of living in  30 percent of                                                                    
the state  population, which lived  off the road  system. He                                                                    
opined  that  population,  being directly  involved  in  the                                                                    
spending cap, had  a better tie-in to cost of  living or the                                                                    
ability  for  the  state  to provide  the  equal  amount  of                                                                    
services  in  rural  areas  compared   to  urban  areas.  He                                                                    
remarked that  GDP numbers were very  different and impacted                                                                    
the   state  in   different  areas.   He  thought   the  GDP                                                                    
calculation  was  abstract  in  many respects  and  did  not                                                                    
reflect the  actual cost of  providing services  in outlying                                                                    
areas.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin  looked at the  black line on  slide 6                                                                    
and  asked  if  it   reflected  the  current  constitutional                                                                    
appropriation limit.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied,  "If we spent to the  limit every year,                                                                    
yes."                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin  noted that the state  had clearly not                                                                    
spent to the spending limit.  She highlighted there had been                                                                    
substantial inflationary  costs in 2021 and  2022, yet there                                                                    
had not  been a  rise in  appropriations. She  stressed that                                                                    
regardless  of  population  size,  the state  still  had  to                                                                    
deliver  certain public  services whether  there were  three                                                                    
people or 33  people needing the service.  She remarked that                                                                    
the  price of  oil and  diesel had  increased substantially.                                                                    
She  thought  they were  seeing  an  explanation as  to  why                                                                    
schools  and other  public services  had been  flatlined and                                                                    
legislators were frustrated to  see there was not sufficient                                                                    
money  to  spend  on  wages  and  healthcare  benefits.  She                                                                    
presumed the  money just had  not been there. She  asked for                                                                    
verification that the chart did not include the PFD.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  confirmed that the  PFD was not included  as an                                                                    
expenditure  subject to  the limit;  therefore,  it was  not                                                                    
included in the chart.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin opined that if  the PFD was one of the                                                                    
largest expenditures, it  should be included as  part of the                                                                    
equation.  She asked  Mr.  Painter to  comment  on the  "sky                                                                    
high" inflation in  2021 and 2022, yet no  increase was seen                                                                    
on the  graph [on slide  6]. She thought it  indicated there                                                                    
had  been no  money to  deliver  services or  the state  had                                                                    
decided to  make sure  the PFD was  large enough.  She asked                                                                    
what  it would  look like  if the  PFD was  included in  the                                                                    
discussion.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:26:45 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  that  there were  a  couple of  slides                                                                    
later  on in  the  presentation showing  the  PFD under  the                                                                    
proposed legislation.  There was  a substantial  increase in                                                                    
spending in  FY 23, but  there was a  drop in FY  22 because                                                                    
spending had largely followed available revenue.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin  asked if  some of  it was  related to                                                                    
federal  COVID-19 pass  through funding.  Alternatively, she                                                                    
wondered if the slide only included state funding.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  that all  federal funds  were excluded                                                                    
because they  were held in  trust for a  particular purpose.                                                                    
The one exception was using  American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA)                                                                    
revenue replacement,  which spent  the same  as undesignated                                                                    
general fund (UGF).                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:27:51 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter turned  to slide  7 and  discussed the  capital                                                                    
budget exclusion  in the  current constitutional  limit. The                                                                    
current limit  specified that at  least one-third was  to be                                                                    
reserved for  capital projects  and loan  appropriations. He                                                                    
relayed that the language was  sometimes interpreted to mean                                                                    
that  one-third of  the budget  should be  capital and  two-                                                                    
thirds should  be operation.  He explained  that it  was not                                                                    
really  how  the  language  read.   He  clarified  that  the                                                                    
language meant that within the  limit at least one-third was                                                                    
to be reserved for capital  projects. He returned to slide 6                                                                    
and  explained  that  of the  [constitutional  appropriation                                                                    
limit of]  $11.3 billion, one-third  may be for  capital and                                                                    
two-thirds   may   be   for  operating.   He   stated   that                                                                    
essentially, there  was a separate  limit for  the operating                                                                    
budget that  was two-thirds  of the  overall limit,  and the                                                                    
capital budget could be any  amount, but up to one-third was                                                                    
reserved for  that purpose. He  explained that  the language                                                                    
essentially  was setting  a lower  limit  for the  operating                                                                    
budget. There were also  provisions allowing the legislature                                                                    
to exceed the capital  project appropriation limit if passed                                                                    
in a  similar manner to  a general obligation bond  bill. He                                                                    
elaborated  that because  general obligation  bond debt  was                                                                    
excluded,  the  limit  specified   that  if  the  money  was                                                                    
available,  the  issue  could  be sent  to  the  voters  for                                                                    
approval, which would enable the state to exceed the limit.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Representative Hannan  asked if  there were any  years where                                                                    
the  budgets had  been  two-thirds  operating and  one-third                                                                    
capital.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  answered there had  not been a year  where one-                                                                    
third  of  the  budget  went to  capital  funds  during  the                                                                    
current appropriation  limit. He  noted there were  a couple                                                                    
of years  (e.g., 2014) where  the operating  budget exceeded                                                                    
the two-thirds.  In the early  years of the limit  there was                                                                    
an  attorney general  opinion ruling  that  during years  of                                                                    
constrained  revenue, the  funds should  not necessarily  go                                                                    
towards the capital  budget. He did not know if  FY 08 would                                                                    
qualify as a year of constrained  revenue, but it was a year                                                                    
the two-thirds limit had been violated.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:30:56 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative Josephson asked if  a lawsuit would have been                                                                    
viable in the two years mentioned by Mr. Painter.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter answered  that the state likely  did violate the                                                                    
two-thirds limit, but no one  had challenged it at the time.                                                                    
He   stated   that   the  timing   of   the   constitutional                                                                    
appropriation limit  meant that any challenge  would have to                                                                    
be made  after the fiscal  year closed and  the expenditures                                                                    
had been made.  He explained it was a bit  of a challenge to                                                                    
determine what  the consequences would  be if a  lawsuit was                                                                    
filed. He  believed it was  something the current  bills and                                                                    
others tried to  address by making it  possible to calculate                                                                    
the  limit  ahead  of  time. He  explained  that  under  the                                                                    
current  constitutional limit,  a  violation  was not  known                                                                    
ahead of  time. He  elaborated that  after the  fact someone                                                                    
could  have  challenged  what   the  legislature  had  done;                                                                    
however, at the time the limit  had been breached he was not                                                                    
sure there had  been awareness they were in  danger of going                                                                    
over the limit.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter turned  to slide  8 and  addressed the  current                                                                    
statutory appropriation  limit, which was established  a few                                                                    
years  after  the  constitutional  appropriation  limit.  He                                                                    
relayed  it was  based on  appropriations made  in a  fiscal                                                                    
year  rather  than for  a  fiscal  year (supplementals  were                                                                    
counted in  the year  appropriated, not  the year  they were                                                                    
effective).  He  pointed  to  the  previous  session  as  an                                                                    
example  of why  the current  statutory appropriation  limit                                                                    
existed.  The  current  statutory  limit,  limited  spending                                                                    
growth  to  population plus  inflation  plus  5 percent.  He                                                                    
stated it seemed very high.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  highlighted that in  2022, there was  8 percent                                                                    
inflation plus  5 percent and around  zero population growth                                                                    
for a  total of 13  percent growth.  There was also  a large                                                                    
spike  in revenue  (far more  than 13  percent) in  the same                                                                    
year  and the  legislature grew  spending by  56 percent  of                                                                    
UGF.  The   current  statutory  limit  specified   that  the                                                                    
legislature  could  only  spend  up to  13  percent  of  the                                                                    
revenue spike.  He stated it was  not designed to be  a path                                                                    
for the legislature to follow  and he thought the LFD graphs                                                                    
were perhaps misleading because they  were shown as path. He                                                                    
explained  that  in  reality it  was  a  year-to-year  limit                                                                    
indicating to  the legislature that  it could only  spend up                                                                    
"x percent"  more than it  had the previous  year regardless                                                                    
of  the size  of a  spike in  revenue. He  relayed that  the                                                                    
limit  had  been  broken  repeatedly,  which  was  allowable                                                                    
because   the   legislature's    constitutional   power   of                                                                    
appropriation  trumped  the  statute.  The  statutory  limit                                                                    
allowed  the  legislature  to   move  things  freely  across                                                                    
supplementals and non-supplementals.  He highlighted that in                                                                    
2022  there were  a number  of capital  projects that  had a                                                                    
supplemental effective  date because "that was  when revenue                                                                    
was available";  however, the  funding did  not particularly                                                                    
apply to that given year.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:34:28 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  turned to  a  graph  on  slide 9  showing  the                                                                    
current statutory appropriation limit.  The graph showed the                                                                    
legislature  had broken  the  statutory appropriation  limit                                                                    
"quite  often"  and  by  a   substantial  amount  in  FY  22                                                                    
(applying  to FY  22 and  FY 23  appropriations made  in the                                                                    
last session).  The limit had been  violated by a bit  in FY                                                                    
18 and  FY 20  and in quite  a few years  as the  budget was                                                                    
growing through FY  12. The intention of the  statute was to                                                                    
lop off spikes when a spike in revenue occurred.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Representative Hannan  stated that wildfires tended  to be a                                                                    
large  supplemental expenditure.  She stated  that one  good                                                                    
policy  model  was  to  put more  money  into  the  wildfire                                                                    
operation upfront to avoid  always backfilling with funding.                                                                    
She asked what would make  the most sense within the current                                                                    
statutory appropriation limit. She  asked if the legislature                                                                    
should  exclude wildfire  and  supplemental  because of  its                                                                    
unpredictability from the calculation.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter responded  it  would fall  under  the state  of                                                                    
disaster. He  explained that the  way the limits  worked did                                                                    
not really  give the best  incentives. He detailed  that the                                                                    
governor  generally only  declared the  disaster when  money                                                                    
was  needed beyond  what had  already been  appropriated. He                                                                    
furthered  that   if  the  legislature   appropriated  zero,                                                                    
everything would be a state  of disaster, or the legislature                                                                    
could  appropriate more  upfront and  there would  not be  a                                                                    
state of disaster. He stated  that under the statutory limit                                                                    
when there was  growth from year-to-year it  was perhaps not                                                                    
as  big of  a  concern as  long as  there  was a  relatively                                                                    
stable budget  and any  disaster funding  that had  not been                                                                    
counted  did not  perhaps cause  issues. The  constitutional                                                                    
model with  a fixed point could  not be gamed by  zeroing it                                                                    
out. He  remarked that  on a scale  of billions  of dollars,                                                                    
the amount  was relatively small  and was not a  huge lever.                                                                    
He stated it was perhaps  a little questionable as currently                                                                    
written and  perhaps there could be  clarification to ensure                                                                    
the  legislature did  not have  the  incentive to  underfund                                                                    
wildfires to get under the limit.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:37:23 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter read from slide 10 titled "HB 38 and HJR 2":                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
    Uses similar appropriations included and excluded as                                                                     
     current limits                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
    Sets limit as percentage of private sector GDP for                                                                       
     both constitutional and statutory limits current CS                                                                        
     is 11% for HB 38 and 13% for HJR 2                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
    Each percentage in the limit equals $475 million of                                                                      
     spending in FY24                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter elaborated  on the third bullet  point above and                                                                    
indicated that in future years  the amount would vary as GDP                                                                    
grew.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:38:14 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  turned to  a graph on  slide 11  reflecting the                                                                    
versions  of  HB  38  and  HJR 2.  The  bars  reflected  the                                                                    
appropriations  subject to  the limit,  the shaded  areas in                                                                    
the background  reflected revenue,  the blue  line reflected                                                                    
the  proposed   statutory  limit  [HB  38],   the  red  line                                                                    
represented the  proposed constitutional limit [HJR  2], and                                                                    
the black  line reflected the current  constitutional limit.                                                                    
FY 24 was indicated with  a black vertical line, followed by                                                                    
projections for future years. The  slide used 11 percent and                                                                    
13  percent  of  GDP,  which   reflected  the  current  bill                                                                    
versions. He  relayed that  the next  few slides  would show                                                                    
different versions of the bill  and the inclusion of the PFD                                                                    
as requested by the committee.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Representative Josephson  looked at the projected  growth in                                                                    
GDP. He  believed it was  inarguable that  operating budgets                                                                    
contributed to GDP. He asked  if it was realistic the growth                                                                    
identified  on  the  graph  [on slide  11]  would  occur  if                                                                    
downward pressure was put on operating budgets.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter answered that projecting  GDP was very difficult                                                                    
and  there  was  not  an official  Alaska  GDP  estimate  or                                                                    
projection. He  explained that the  Department of  Labor and                                                                    
Workforce Development or any other  institution did not have                                                                    
a  responsibility to  make a  projection. He  explained that                                                                    
LFD was making  up the 1.5 percent [GDP  growth] number. The                                                                    
number  was based  on historical  averages, and  he was  not                                                                    
comfortable  speculating what  influenced GDP  because there                                                                    
was no official projection in the state.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Representative Josephson  considered a scenario  where there                                                                    
was  population  growth toward  the  beginning  of the  next                                                                    
decade. He  elaborated on a  scenario where the  state would                                                                    
need more teachers, but could  not hire them; therefore, the                                                                    
teachers  could not  afford to  buy homes.  He asked  if the                                                                    
scenario would impact GDP.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  confirmed that any  fiscal policy  choice would                                                                    
impact GDP.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:41:10 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter turned to slide  12 showing the original version                                                                    
of the  bills, which  included 11.5 percent  of GDP  for the                                                                    
statutory appropriation limit and 14  percent of GDP for the                                                                    
constitutional  appropriation  limit.   He  relayed  the  .5                                                                    
percent difference was about $237  million and the 1 percent                                                                    
difference was  about $475  million respectively.  The graph                                                                    
showed that in  FY 24 the original version of  the bill, the                                                                    
statutory  appropriation  limit  was  a bit  closer  to  the                                                                    
current budget as proposed by  the House. The previous limit                                                                    
was substantially under the House budget.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin  asked about operating  versus capital                                                                    
and  how Alaska  had behaved  as a  state historically.  She                                                                    
remarked that it felt like  the lines had been pretty muddy.                                                                    
She elaborated  that she  saw many  things in  the operating                                                                    
budget that she could imagine  being called capital and vice                                                                    
versa. She  asked Mr. Painter  to comment on the  topic. She                                                                    
asked if the  bills would result in  more "jockeying around"                                                                    
in order to make things add up in the right place.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  answered there were  legal definitions  for the                                                                    
difference  between operating  and capital.  He stated  that                                                                    
generally   when  appropriation   bills  were   drafted  the                                                                    
legislature  was  stricter  about trying  to  put  operating                                                                    
items in the  capital budget because the  capital budget had                                                                    
a  longer lapse  timeframe.  Whereas the  legislature was  a                                                                    
little  less  strict  on  putting  capital  items  into  the                                                                    
operating budget  because with  only one  year to  spend the                                                                    
money  it  was  a  disadvantage.  There  was  some  muddying                                                                    
because    the   legislature    retained   the    power   of                                                                    
appropriation,  and could  put  things in  whatever bill  it                                                                    
wanted  and  call  them  whatever   it  wanted  despite  the                                                                    
opinions of  LFD and Legislative  Legal Services.  He stated                                                                    
that  LFD  would often  give  guidance  on which  budget  it                                                                    
believed items belonged.  He did not believe  there would be                                                                    
any difference in how operating  and capital were treated in                                                                    
the bills.  He was not sure  there would be an  incentive to                                                                    
try to  muddy the waters.  He stated that under  the current                                                                    
limit there  were some exclusions for  capital projects, but                                                                    
only if approval could be  obtained from voters, which was a                                                                    
fairly high bar.  He was not sure whether  that was retained                                                                    
in HJR 2.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Representative Galvin  remarked that Mr. Painter  had stated                                                                    
there was currently a bit  of muddying occurring, but it was                                                                    
based on  what the legislature  had chosen to do.  She asked                                                                    
if  the parameters  [in the  bills] added  more clarity  and                                                                    
transparency or less.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  did not  know that  the bill  would necessarily                                                                    
change what the  legislature would choose to  call a capital                                                                    
or  operating  item.  Generally, the  legislature  tried  to                                                                    
follow the statute that set  out what qualified as a capital                                                                    
project and what qualified for  the capital lapse provisions                                                                    
that were more favorable.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:45:07 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative Josephson asked if  the budget passed in 2022                                                                    
would have required a two-thirds  vote from both chambers to                                                                    
exceed  the cap  on  capital budgets  in  light of  generous                                                                    
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) funding.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  that the  federal appropriations  were                                                                    
outside  of  the limit,  but  match  would be  included.  He                                                                    
relayed that the  FY 23 operating budget  exceeded the limit                                                                    
contemplated under  the original [bill]  version; therefore,                                                                    
it would have required an additional vote.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Representative   Josephson  asked   if  members   from  both                                                                    
chambers (frequently minority  members) could leverage their                                                                    
vote  in  exchange  for additional  capital  dollars,  which                                                                    
would grow the capital budget.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied that it  was similar to the dynamic with                                                                    
the Constitutional  Budget Reserve (CBR) where  people could                                                                    
use it for  leverage and often that  leverage was additional                                                                    
spending rather  than reduced spending. He  relayed that any                                                                    
higher vote threshold could be leveraged for more spending.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Representative Josephson  remarked that  even though  it may                                                                    
sound like cronyism or crass  politics, it had a rationality                                                                    
as well. He  stated that human behavior  suggested that sort                                                                    
of thing could happen. He asked if his statement was fair.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied it was  more political territory than he                                                                    
wanted to weigh in on.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:47:23 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter turned  to  a  graph on  slide  13 showing  the                                                                    
Senate version  of the bills    SB 20 and  SJR 4    that had                                                                    
been amended  upwards to  12 percent and  15 percent  of GDP                                                                    
respectively.  The numbers  had been  selected because  they                                                                    
were in line  with the governor's FY 24  budget (the numbers                                                                    
were slightly different than current House budget).                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  moved to  slide 14  titled "HB 38  and HJR  2                                                                      
Current CS  with Statutory  PFD (11% and  13% of  GDP)." The                                                                    
purple section  of the  bars reflected  the addition  of the                                                                    
statutory PFD.  He reminded committee  members that  the PFD                                                                    
was excluded from  the current limit and  the current bills.                                                                    
He  noted that  LFD  had  been asked  to  show  how the  PFD                                                                    
compared to the appropriations under the limit.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Representative  Hannan asked  for verification  that because                                                                    
the PFD was excluded  from the current constitutional limit,                                                                    
LFD had not  included it in the operating  monies. She asked                                                                    
for verification  that the operating  budget portion  of the                                                                    
bars did  not include the PFD  that had not been  paid, even                                                                    
in the years that did not include a statutory [PFD].                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  answered that the historical  numbers reflected                                                                    
what had been paid and  the statutory [PFD] was reflected in                                                                    
the projections  going forward. He  pointed to FY 23  and FY                                                                    
24 and  clarified that the  bars reflected the PFD  that had                                                                    
been distributed and not what  the statutory number had been                                                                    
in those years.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Representative Hannan  asked if Mr. Painter  had stated that                                                                    
the slide reflected the payment  of full statutory PFDs even                                                                    
in years the full amount had not been paid.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  answered  that the  slide  showed  the  amount                                                                    
actually paid  for all years,  whether the statute  had been                                                                    
followed or not.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter turned to slide 15 titled "HB 38 and HJR 2                                                                          
Current CS with  50/50 PFD (11% and 13% of  GDP)." The graph                                                                    
reflected the  PFD at  50 percent of  the percent  of market                                                                    
value (POMV)  going forward, which  was the  amount included                                                                    
in  the  House  budget.  He  noted  the  PFD  shown  in  the                                                                    
historical bars reflected the actual amount paid.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:50:16 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter turned to slide 16 titled "HB 38 and HJR 2                                                                          
Current CS with  75/25 PFD (11% and 13% of  GDP)." The slide                                                                    
showed the 75/25  where 25 percent of the POMV  draw went to                                                                    
the PFD as contemplated current Senate budget.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Edgmon  stated that it  was obvious that  under the                                                                    
proposed spending cap something  would have to give, whether                                                                    
it was the PFD, spending  and operating, or capital budgets,                                                                    
in order  to meet  the spending cap  threshold or  trigger a                                                                    
supermajority vote.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  confirmed  that   as  currently  written,  the                                                                    
spending  cap  would  be  significantly  below  the  current                                                                    
version of the  House budget. He explained  that meeting the                                                                    
11 percent [of  GDP under HB 38] would  require reducing the                                                                    
budget  to meet  the number  or changing  the number  in the                                                                    
bill (as done in the Senate version of the bill).                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Edgmon stated  it  would also  speak  to the  11.5                                                                    
percent and 14 percent of GDP  [modeled on slide 12] and the                                                                    
12 and 15 percent of GDP  [modeled on slide 13]. He remarked                                                                    
that  all  of  the  modeling  presumed  a  spending  cap  as                                                                    
proposed would  mean something would  have to give  down the                                                                    
road whether on the budget side or PFD side.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter answered  that because the PFD  was not included                                                                    
in the limit, the 12 to 15  percent of GDP would be close to                                                                    
expected spending  assuming spending  was fairly  flat going                                                                    
forward,  but   a  lower   number  would   require  spending                                                                    
reductions.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Edgmon stated it was  the reason the bills gave him                                                                    
pause  because  currently the  way  the  bills were  written                                                                    
would mean reductions  would be on the  social services side                                                                    
in  the  capital  and operating  budgets.  He  believed  the                                                                    
legislature needed to take a hard look at the issue.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:52:36 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Representative Stapp  looked at  slide 13 showing  the graph                                                                    
using  12 and  15 percent  of  GDP [under  SB 20  and SBR  4                                                                    
respectively].  He asked  for  verification  that the  spend                                                                    
under  the proposed  statutory limit  [SB  20] included  the                                                                    
capital budget as well.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter responded affirmatively.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Foster reviewed the schedule for the afternoon.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
HB 38 - HJR 2 LFD 5-8-23.pdf HFIN 5/8/2023 10:00:00 AM
HB 38
HJR 2
HB 138 AML - Spending Cap 050923.pdf HFIN 5/8/2023 10:00:00 AM
HB 138
HJR 2 Amendments 1-4 Stapp 051123.pdf HFIN 5/8/2023 10:00:00 AM
HJR 2
HB 38 Amendments 1-4 051123.pdf HFIN 5/8/2023 10:00:00 AM
HB 38